Disaster Due Diligence April 30, 2010
Environmental disaster
HEADLINE: Stopping Gulf Coast oil leak could take weeks
SUMMARY: Officials say if efforts fail to close the undersea valve allowing more than 200,000 gallons of oil a day to spill into the Gulf of Mexico, the next-best plans will take weeks more to stop the flow. Parts of the Gulf Coast were bracing for oil slick to reach shore Friday, creating an environmental and financial disaster that could last years.
STORY LINK: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/04/29/stopping.oil.leak/index.html?hpt=T1
ANALYSIS: When is it over? A disaster or a crisis can have long-term impacts. We continue to experience air travel and security changes as a result of 9/11. Katrina … Virginia Tech … all of these events changed how we view disasters.
The consequences from a single disaster for a business can have lasting effects. The loss of the oil rig had an immediate impact on the employees on board and first responders. We see the efforts to contain oil spill. What will the cost be to clean up? What will the impact be on the environment, fishing, navigation, shipping, regulation, local businesses, and the price of oil? How will other firms change operations?
Have you identified all the risks/vulnerabilities in your business? How do you monitor the risks that you have identified? Have you quantified all the impacts of the risks? After the disaster, it is too late. Now is the time to understand the risks and impacts and develop plans. Are you ready? How do you know?
Communicable illness
HEADLINE: H1N1 Lessons Learned: Pandemic underscored influenza's unpredictability
SUMMARY: At the one-year mark since the emergence of novel H1N1 influenza, CIDRAP News reviewed the lessons of the pandemic. Chief among them: the endless unpredictability of flu viruses. Unlike seasonal flu, H1N1 hit children and young adults much more than people over 65; it was relatively mild for most people, unlike the 1918 flu or devastating H5N1 avian flu which heavily shaped pandemic preparations; but it killed far more children and young people than typical seasonal flu and brought the first hint that obesity is a risk factor for severe complications.
STORY LINK: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/apr2310pandemic-jw.html
ANALYSIS: It is likely that analysis of the H1N1 pandemic – what went wrong, what went right, and why we fared so well – will continue well into the future. Several things should be immediately clear, however, and should drive continuing policy development and preparation. An enduring lesson is that nature is highly adaptable. Many of the standard recommendations for influenza proved to be less than optimal for this strain. That H1N1 was milder than feared was fortunate. A similar, rapid human-to-human spread of H5N1 would have profound global impact -- half of all cases to date have been fatal.
Family and workplace planning should emphasize staying healthy and reacting to the unexpected. The now familiar exhortations about hand washing, cough etiquette, and cleaning common surfaces remain valid. Similarly, creating an environment where illness is viewed as natural with interpersonal contact limited until after recovery will actually reduce overall sick time. As we learned with SARS, the next health threat may not be what we expect. The time to address gaps in planning and practice is now, when the need is not urgent. The next outbreak may not be so kind.
HEADLINE: Deadly airborne fungus in Oregon expected to spread to California
SUMMARY: The virulent fungus strain that has killed 1 in 4 people infected in Oregon is also present in Washington and Idaho and is likely to spread into California, according to researchers at Duke University Medical Center. The fungus, which is found on trees and the surrounding soil, releases deadly spores that can be easily inhaled. Previously limited to tropical and subtropical areas of the world, Cryptococcus gattii likely is spreading because of climate change. While there is treatment, there is no vaccine available. Most at risk are those who have frequent contact with soil.
STORY LINK: http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/science-scope/deadly-airborne-fungi-in-oregon-expected-to-spread-to-california/1317/
ANALYSIS: The impact of globalization has been profound. Billions of people now travel all over the world, enjoying different cultures, visiting historic sites, and interacting as never before. Foods that were once considered seasonal are now available year round. And dangers once isolated by distance can travel to new, vulnerable locations. International travelers routinely are reminded of restrictions on carrying plants, foodstuff, or animals. Less evident may be fungus, insects, or other dangers not visible to the naked eye.
There are basic steps that can be taken to limit exposure to dangers such as this. One is to have “situational awareness.” Know what threats lay in waiting, be it Cryptococcus gattii, poison ivy, or rattlesnakes. When working with soil or plant life, be vigilant in washing yourself, your clothing, footwear, and even cars, ATVs, or bicycles. Inspect yourself for exposures, especially small pests that may be hard to detect, such as the Lyme-carrying deer tick. When visiting an area known or suspected to contain an environmental threat, know the symptoms for which to watch. When in doubt, seek medical advice. The old saw applies: it is better to be safe than sorry.
HEADLINE: Antibiotic resistance growing as US health risk
SUMMARY: Illnesses and infections once considered safely eradicated could soon make a dangerous comeback if Americans continue to misuse antibiotic drugs.
STORY LINK: http://www.aolnews.com/health/article/antibiotic-resistance-growing-as-us-health-risk/19454589
ANALYSIS: Drug resistant illnesses have been gradually growing as a serious threat to humankind. Analysis from the 2007 World Health Report shows how rapidly an effective tool can become useless:
Source: World Health Organization
The causes are many, including nature’s own ability to adapt. Humans contribute by demanding and taking antibiotics for viral conditions or not completing the prescribed course of treatment when antibiotics are appropriate. A similar phenomenon exists with antivirals. Viruses naturally adapt to overcome threats. The indiscriminate use of antivirals hastens the day when they will be ineffective.
At various points in recent history a black market in certain medicines has arisen. Cipro and Doxycycline were in demand and had “street value” following the 2001 postal anthrax attacks. Similar demand for Tamiflu developed during last year’s H1N1 outbreak. Uncontrolled use can have unintended consequences. Simply stated, following physician’s orders can help slow this trend. While science continues to pursue the next generation of cure, it must be recognized that the advances of the last century were remarkable. Reducing exposure, getting vaccinated when possible, and using antibiotics and antivirals as directed are steps that can be taken today. Prevention works; hoping for a cure may not.
Financial crisis
HEADLINE: More austerity on way as Greece readies for aid plan
SUMMARY: Expectations are that Greece will receive an economic rescue package, rumored to total between 100 billion to 120 billion euros over three years, as soon as this weekend. But the country --already beset by strikes and protests as a result of government belt-tightening -- will face additional austerity measures as part of the price for the loan package from its euro-zone partners and the International Monetary Fund. Fears sparked this week that a default by Greece could have domino effect among other weak Eurozone countries—including Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland.
STORY LINK: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-austerity-on-way-as-greece-aid-talks-near-end-2010-04-30
ANALYSIS: There is a school of thought suggesting that while the human condition has vastly improved, especially based on our technological prowess, the human psychological makeup isn’t much changed since, well, since homo sapiens first hit the shores of antediluvian earth. I can say one thing for sure; we haven’t gained much the last 500 years. Consider:
From Shakespeare's Hamlet, 1602:
LORD POLONIUS: Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend, And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
Europe has too much history. By that I mean there have been centuries of battles, contests for the new world, and while the bullets have stopped flying (at least in Western Europe); the parochial interests of each country interfere with the hope of subordinating those interests to pan-European stability. There are kings in tombs at Westminster Abbey that predate Columbus’ journey to the New World by hundreds of years. A “United States of Europe” is an extraordinarily difficult, perhaps impossible mission with such deep rooted histories and strong national identities.
Which brings us to Greece, the cradle of Western Civilization and now the current financial basket case of the EMU. Socialist governments coming to prominence in the post WW II era could count on demographics of a young and vigorous population and the rebuilding of Europe to pay for the ever- increasing scope of government and the concurrent benefits for its workers. Now, with older populations, reduction in birthrates generally, and the bills for significant levels of benefits coming due, Greece and others are finding their options limited, and their economies overextended.
Isolated, the Greek problem could be contained. Unfortunately several countries in Europe look perilously similar, many are worse. Iceland has already essentially gone bankrupt. Ireland’s woes may be worse than Greece. Take a look at this list, courtesy of CNBC, and you will find debt ratios of 15 countries that are worse than Greece: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_World_s_Biggest_Debtor_Nations?slide=1
Connected as it is through the EMU, the woes of Greece become the woes of everyone. (As I write this, CNBC announced downgrades of Greek banks by Moody’s).
In terms of an impact on the U.S., these events have been likened to the canary in the coal mine in providing a glimpse into a potential future for us. Certainly we have individual states here in similar circumstances, trying to balance budgets in the face of backbreaking debt, pension obligations, and economic stagnation. Simply leveling additional taxes on state residents is not the answer, especially for wealthy individuals, who represent the largest tax revenue stream, and who will vote with their feet. Painful combinations of spending cuts, different ways of taxing, and tax reductions to spur economic growth are required. (As I write this, CNBC announced a default by Harrisburg, PA on a debt payment).
Uncertainty is very tough to manage. Preparing for a hurricane is an easier challenge – we know what to expect and now we can follow its path. The path here is unknown, so stay informed, stay agile, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Natural disaster
HEADLINE: R.I. flood recovery update
SUMMARY: Last month, Rhode Island was battered by torrential rainfall that left a large portion of the state underwater, and officials say the total costs from damage as a result of the Great Flood of 2010 will exceed $200 million. According to FEMA, more than 2,000 people remain out of their homes, and many businesses are still closed.
STORY LINK: http://www.anchorweb.org/news/r-i-flood-recovery-update-1.2243013
ANALYSIS: The worst disaster that you will ever see is the one that happens to you, your family, or your business. Are you ready?
The 2010 floods have been devastating. Impacts are estimated from the hundreds of millions to billions across the U.S. Rhode Island’s impact is already over $200 million and rising rapidly. The human toll is even greater; 2,000 families without homes, businesses closed. Every crisis is a human crisis.
The mayor of Providence, David Cicilline, said “it is clear that the current system often does not provide the help needed, especially by small businesses.’’
So where can your business find help? Firestorm will announce next month the first private-sector preparedness network. Businesses gain access to crisis-critical products, services, support and facilities, 24/7, through a consortium of national sponsors. Starting in May, we will share with you everything you need to know, have and do for business “peace of mind.”
Preparedness groups
Join Firestorm’s LinkedIn groups and help build a Culture of Preparedness for your family and organization:
DISASTER READY PEOPLE: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1914314&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
WORKPLACE VIOLENCE: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1898572&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
COMMUNICABLE ILLNESS: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1899278&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
SWINE FLU: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1921222&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
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