Disaster Due Diligence April 9, 2010
Join Firestorm Principals, Jim Satterfield and Suzanne Loughlin
We would like to invite you to join us for an important event, hosted by the law firm of Keesal, Young & Logan, where a distinguished panel will focus your attention on the immediate risks posed to your business by natural and man-made crises and disasters. You will get the chance to participate in a hands on crisis exercise and obtain input from industry leaders who will share their personal experiences in significant crisis environments.
The event will be held on April 26, 2010, from 3:00 -5:30pm, followed by cocktails and lively discussion from 5:30-7:30pm at the penthouse offices of our host, Keesal, Young & Logan, overlooking the port of Los Angeles, 400 Oceangate, 14th floor, Long Beach, CA 90801.
Click here to register: http://kyl.com/crisis-rsvp/index.html
Natural disasters
HEADLINE: Atlantic may see above-average hurricane season
SUMMARY: Lacking the El Niño conditions that tamped down tropical activity in the past two seasons, university forecasters predict the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be above average, with 15 named storms and eight of those becoming hurricanes. In the report, Colorado State forecasters said that unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist, leading to favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify. The forecast said the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent, with a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean.
STORY LINK: http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/04/07/hurricane.forecast/index.html?hpt=T2
ANALYSIS: Hurricanes are predictable events. You and your business are on notice. Failure to plan is unacceptable risk to your company, employees, and shareholders and increases liability to senior managers and board members. Planning keeps a disruption from becoming a disaster. An unplanned event becomes a crisis quickly. A hurricane should not become a crisis for a business.
Hurricanes are generally limited to only 6 months a year and East Coast and Gulf Coast regions. Every plan must be tested prior to the start of hurricane season June 1. Studies indicate 70 percent of employees do not know their responsibilities in a disaster and 95 percent of families have no disaster plan. Plans, training, and supplies are needed both for companies and families.
How do you know your company is ready? Who is responsible for monitoring? What are the triggers to activate your plans? If you wait for the government to declare an evacuation, it is too late.
HEADLINE: One aspect of a storm keeps them guessing: Forecasters improve tracking hurricane paths but not strengths
SUMMARY: While forecasters set accuracy records for predicting the path of Atlantic hurricanes last season, their ability to predict how and when tropical systems will strengthen and weaken has not measurably improved during the last two decades. The National Hurricane Center used Hurricane Felix, which struck Central America in 2007, as the prime example. Felix blew up from a tropical depression into a Category 5 hurricane with 175-mph winds in two days. The hurricane center's best forecast models at the time showed Felix would become, at worst, a strong tropical storm with 70-mph winds.
STORY LINK: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/nation/6939034.html
ANALYSIS: How bad is bad? Forecasting remains an art, not an exact science. Even a small storm can quickly morph into a serious hurricane in a few hours. Disaster Denial remains a serious threat to everyone. Every time a storm does not create a disaster at the level of a Katrina, the public reaction is to minimize the potential of all future storms. Each storm has the potential to cause disruption and death. If you are the only business that is destroyed, your business is still destroyed.
One of the five critical failures in disasters is the failure to monitor all threats and vulnerabilities. Monitoring can be direct and/or indirect. Your responsibilities also include identifying triggers to activate your plans based upon the results of the monitoring activity. Waiting to see if the storm hits your building is too late to trigger your plans.
Have you identified what to monitor? Have you identified who will monitor? Do you have two backup people assigned if the person responsible is unavailable? Have you identified how they will monitor? Do you have predetermined triggers to activate each portion of your plan? Do you have a communications plan to activate your continuity plan? Have you tested each of these steps? Are you ready? How do you know?
Homeland security
HEADLINE: U.S. companies increasingly worried about security in Mexico
SUMMARY: Many U.S. companies in Mexico are reconsidering future investments as drug-war killings spiral out of control. The American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico, which represents the bulk of foreign direct investment in the country, said 58 percent of its members felt less safe in 2009 than they did a year earlier and 27 percent were reconsidering investments in Mexico due to security concerns. Shootings and grenade attacks have become common near the U.S. border area, which is dotted with foreign-owned factories. Companies cite kidnappings and extortion as other risks.
STORY LINK: http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/us-companies-increasingly-worried-about-security-mexico
ANALYSIS: Many people’s first reaction may be that this does not concern them. WRONG. This violence is not just another problem in Mexico. This violence is not just a problem between some drug dealers. This violence is not just a limited, small problem. This violence is a civil war that impacts people on both sides of the border. This violence brings greater violence into the U.S. This violence has curtailed travel, disrupted the flow of goods and services, and squandered hundreds of millions of dollars. Violence is a daily way of life in Mexico.
Kidnappings, murders, bribes, fraud, thefts, violence, political instability, lost jobs, new traffic routes for terrorists to enter the U.S., and anarchy are immediate realities. Our economy is in peril. We are fighting two wars. We have 10 percent unemployment. We have a failing housing market. We have billions or trillions of unfunded new debt. Chaos in Mexico could lead to escalating U.S. involvement, both military and financial.
If the problem can occur in 31 states in Mexico, when will it escalate in Texas, Arizona, California or some other U.S. state? Today, critical projects and work are not being done in Mexico because of the violence. How does it impact your supply chain? How does it impact your customers and employees? How do you identify and quantify these impacts on your company? Do you know? If not, you need to take action now.
Cyber security
HEADLINE: Boeing, U.S. government step up recruitment for ‘cyberwarriors’
SUMMARY: Demand for computer security experts is surging in the wake of high-profile threats such as the ones outlined by Google Inc., which said in January that Chinese hackers stole intellectual property and targeted e-mail accounts of human- rights activists. The U.S. government and companies will need about 60,000 cyber security workers in the next three years. Because cyberattacks happen so quickly and attackers can change tactics rapidly, experts say the fight often boils down to which side has the best-trained experts.
STORY LINK: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=abmfWsuQyyk0
ANALYSIS: This article is the latest in a long list of warnings that have come from general news sources, information technology publications, Congressional testimony, in short, from just about everywhere. It should serve not only as a guide for career planning, but also as a wake-up call for you and your business interests.
I will make a very easy prediction: A devastating cyber event will occur which will cause a company or companies to go out of business because they could not recover from the impact. One of the challenges associated with planning for such an event is understanding what the origins are. Even though we plan for events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and the like, we still can suffer significant damage. But in cyberspace the origins of these attacks are diverse and often so complex that the responses can only be mounted once the attack is detected.
Not only do these attacks potentially affect a company directly – such as compromised accounts at financial institutions – they can devastate your supply chain. Imagine, for example, the electric grid compromised and no power to your facilities. As someone has said, it will take you back to the 1850s.
This is a situation where you should not only be actively evaluating the companies that will help you guard against experiencing a devastating event, it is one where you should be asking your national government leaders about their efforts as well. This is an undeclared war against an enemy that may be sponsored by another nation. A successful attack could cripple our government’s ability to respond adequately or weaken their ability to respond to a subsequent event. It is hard to underestimate the impact a successful cyber attack on a key critical infrastructure would have on our lives.
Campus security
HEADLINE: New law could force schools to allow guns on campus
SUMMARY: A bill that passed the Kansas House of Representatives would allow individuals with a conceal-carry license to bring firearms on college campuses, despite being opposed by school administrators. The bill, which is currently before the state Senate, would force schools to allow guns on campus unless there were “adequate security measures to ensure that no weapons are permitted to be carried into or on such premises or facilities.” To meet such a requirement, schools would have to make a major investment in technology. “The only way not to have guns on campus is to put metal detectors at every entrance, which is cost prohibitive,” said Todd Cohen, spokesperson for University of Kansas. Allowing guns on campus would largely undermine campus safety and the security efforts currently in place, say university officials.
STORY LINK: http://www.securitydirectornews.com/?p=article&id=sd201004eevZZf
ANALYSIS: As most issues pertaining to the Bill of Rights and individual rights, any firearm legislation is going to draw a lot of attention and hysteria from both sides. Before we jump into the actual legal and perceived safety issues of this legislation, let’s briefly look at the citizens who desire to protect themselves: college students who are young adults, not kids. These students, by way of admission, have shown they have a good IQ, the ability to learn and the ability to make good decisions. Age-wise, they are eligible to serve in any branch of our armed services. Most states require 21 as the age to purchase or carry a handgun, meaning we are talking about upperclassmen.
I asked David Burnett, the Director of Public Relations with Students for Concealed Carry on Campus, for his thoughts on this: "Colleges are presently forcing law-abiding citizens to choose between personal protection and a college education. The only thing a college can guarantee is defenselessness. They can't guarantee safety. Regarding the supposed threat by security officers, anyone who says this will increase the risk is ignoring the facts. No study has ever proven that licensed concealed carrying makes things worse. At the handful of colleges where allowed, there have been no incidents with permit holders.’’
Let’s look at the opposition of students legally carrying, from Todd Cohen, spokesperson for University of Kansas: “Allowing weapons on campus would significantly increase the risk of violence and harm to students, faculty and others rather than making anyone safer. If a police officer responds to a shooting scene, knowing who had a gun and who didn’t could present problems. It would be difficult to know who has a permit and who should or shouldn’t be carrying a weapon.”
My support is to the students’ view, based on facts and having knowledge of -- and being a participant in -- active shooter drills. I am a certified firearms instructor for law enforcement and general public. When you respond to an active shooter situation, everyone is assumed to be armed. Everyone not part of the SWAT team is instructed to assume a position to ensure safety to the responders. If you don’t comply in this stressful situation, the outcome will not be favorable to the non-compliant individual. Most undercover cops who are shot by responding officers do not comply with instructions. Campus police will not be excluded from this. Any bad guy can buy a uniform and pose as a security guard. I am of the opinion that before anyone is allowed to carry a concealed weapon in public, adequate training and periodic requalification (like we have for active duty and retired police officers) are needed to address the legal implications, moral obligations and general proficiency of the individual.
Most universities are not fully compliant with the Clery Act or the newest amendments for emergency training effective this July. The Clery Act was initiated to protect students and facility from all sorts of threats. A recent study performed by Academic Impression showed “51 percent of responding schools reported having experienced a crisis on their campus in the last two years, and over one-third (34 percent) reported having either low confidence or no confidence at all in their institution's ability to effectively execute their crisis response plan in the event of an emergency.” No wonder students are concerned.
The students (high school and college) who have committed some of the most heinous acts of violence did not just one day “snap’’ and go on a rampage. With rare exception, each and every incident there were multiple warning signals that were ignored by friends, parents or professors. A huge burden of responsibility in the prevention of these acts lies on their shoulders.
Whether at a school, office building, factory or healthcare facility, workplace violence is largely preventable and certainly can be minimized with the right plans in place.
Communicable illness
HEADLINE: Biz affiliation could increase risk of transmission of avian flu
SUMMARY: A study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health found company affiliation to be the greatest driver of farm-to-farm avian flu transmission risk. Typical multiple-farm contacts included workers, feed distributors, waste handlers and social contacts. The researchers used the model to analyze how an outbreak of H5N1 at a single farm on the Delaware-Maryland peninsula might spread through the poultry farm-dense region.
STORY LINK: http://gazette.jhu.edu/2010/04/05/biz-affiliation-could-increase-risk-of-transmission-of-avian-flu/
ANALYSIS: The cited study examined how disease spreads in a region with a concentration of poultry farms that are a major economic presence. Incidents of avian flu are particularly damaging to this industry because practice is to destroy infected flocks. While the specific focus of this study was chicken farms, the applicability to other businesses, communities, and families is significant. Communicable disease is spread by various means: person to person, by vectors such as fleas or mosquitoes, and environmentally.
Understanding the patterns of travel and interactions of your employees or family members can be a meaningful tool in limiting potential exposure. When is it appropriate to limit movement or contact? Conversely, needless restrictions can have an adverse impact on the ability to conduct business. Too often, decisions are based on emotional reaction vs. a sound analysis of the potential danger. Opting too far in either direction can have dire consequences.
An accurate risk assessment is a core characteristic of a Culture of Preparedness. Understanding exposure is the first step toward reducing risk. Reducing risk builds resiliency, an attribute that will keep you in business when the unexpected occurs.
HEADLINE: Swine flu no big deal? Look at years of life lost
SUMMARY: While the number of H1N1 deaths in the U.S. was comparable to a bad seasonal flu in 2009, swine flu claimed three times as many years of life because the victims were so young. While seasonal flu victims’ average age is 76, the average age of people killed by swine flu was 37. Using the average life expectancy of H1N1 victims, researchers calculated that the U.S. lost nearly 2 million years of life -- more than in the 1968 pandemic.
STORY LINK: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627545.000-swine-flu-no-big-deal-look-at-years-of-life-lost.html
ANALYSIS: Media, social networking, and even scientific publications have recently entertained the strange notion that H1N1 was a minor event and that public health and other officials overreacted in response to this disease. That more than 12,000 Americans died from flu-related causes could hardly be considered minor. Factor in that many of these victims were young – some 1,800, 15 percent, were children – and the scope borders on tragic. According to the CDC, only 20 percent of Americans were vaccinated against H1N1, with health workers reporting a 37 percent vaccination rate.
As previously stated, one of the first steps toward reducing risk is recognizing when this is possible. Those who minimize the potential of an influenza pandemic run the risk of being caught by surprise. While this time was mild by comparison (a fact we see only in hindsight), the next time may not be. The problem is we have no way of knowing beforehand. Lack of awareness precludes preparedness, which in turn tempts disaster. This is an invitation best left unsent.
Preparedness groups
Join Firestorm’s LinkedIn groups and help build a Culture of Preparedness for your family and organization:
DISASTER READY PEOPLE: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1914314&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
WORKPLACE VIOLENCE: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1898572&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
COMMUNICABLE ILLNESS: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1899278&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
SWINE FLU: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1921222&trk=myg_ugrp_ovr
|
•
del.icio.us
digg
facebook
