12-Mar-10 1:00 PM EST

Firestorm Newsletter 12-Mar-10

March 12, 2010

Disaster Due Diligence March 12, 2010

Emergency communications

HEADLINE: Havoc reigns in Oklahoma City CC lockdown

SUMMARY: An unrelated e-mail alert passed from department to department at Oklahoma City Community College eventually caused panic among students over a nonexistent “active shooter’’ on campus. The domino-like series of misinformation, miscommunications and management gaffes included the campus police mistakenly setting off a fire alarm, a security guard accidentally discharging his gun and a campus-wide lockdown.

STORY LINK: http://campustechnology.com/Articles/2010/03/10/Havoc-Reigns-in-Oklahoma-City-CC-Lockdown.aspx?Page=1

ANALYSIS: There are many lessons to be learned in this story. First there was confusion, then misinformation, more confusion, rumors, fear, speculations, fire alarms, panic, evacuations, lockdowns, mistakes were made, unauthorized informal communications channels used, lack of control, wrong decisions, guns fired, fear, panic and chaos. What would you think or do?

Information moves informally and quickly in today’s world, with social networking and text messaging available to almost everyone. Information flows almost instantly, and without verification. People build on misinformation and add facts that didn’t occur. People assign motives and causes without any basis in fact or knowledge.

Fortunately, no one died in this incident. Unfortunately, they could have. Studies show 70 percent of employees don’t know what to do in a crisis or disaster. Do your employees? What is your command structure? How does your organization respond in a crisis? What vulnerabilities do you have? How do you monitor them? Who monitors them? What are the message maps to respond to various events? How and where do your employees get accurate information when seconds matter?

There are some humorous elements in this case. (has Barney Fife returned from Mayberry?) Unfortunately, there may be a real event on the campus and the first reaction will be another false alarm. Every student and faculty member is less safe today than before this event occurred. Workplace violence is an identified hazard by OSHA. What is your company’s plan to address this growing threat?

--Jim Satterfield, Firestorm COO/President

Communicable illness

HEADLINE: Biggest swine flu regret for U.S.: vaccine chaos

SUMMARY: U.S. public health leaders recently reviewed the government’s response to the H1N1 pandemic, singling out the supply timeline, confusion and misinformation about the vaccine as its major shortcomings. "We told people to prepare to be vaccinated in October and then we didn't show up with vaccine," said Texas state health commissioner David Lakey. The CDC says that by Feb. 13, as the pandemic waned in the United States, only 97 million H1N1 vaccine doses had been given to 86 million people, or 78 percent of doses shipped.

STORY LINK: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6244LN20100305

ANALYSIS: Ready or not, here it comes. … The apparent waning of the H1N1 pandemic opens the door for the inevitable analysis (necessary) and second guessing (unfortunate). There are certainly lessons to be learned both from the official response and from the public’s reaction. The transmissibility and persistence of the virus clearly demonstrated that stopping it is virtually impossible and formulaic answers, such as closing schools en masse, are neither practical nor sustainable. Overly optimistic projections caused shortages early on, yet a pervasive anti-vaccine sentiment emerged and persists still.

All of this could be chalked up as a “teachable moment” if not for one troubling aspect. As a nation, we spent countless hours and untold sums developing plans for an influenza pandemic: H5N1. While that prospective plague failed to materialize, we were somehow caught less than optimally prepared for H5N1’s distant cousin, H1N1. We are a culture of disaster denial. The current threat passes, so the plans are placed on the shelf where they quickly transform into “shelf-ware,” or that which mainly serves to look impressive in a bookcase while collecting dust.

The news should not be that a post-event analysis is being conducted, nor what the conclusions are thereof. Rather, what should be notable is what actions will be taken as a result of the oversights and mistakes of the immediate past. This applies to our society as a whole as well as to each individual. Since the dawn of 2010, earthquakes have been a frequent item in the news, some in places where they are to be expected, such as Chile and Hawaii, and others in unusual locales such as Haiti and Illinois. If a sudden, unexpected disaster occurred right now, would you be ready? [Disasters are, by definition, always unexpected. No reasonable person plans to be devastated.]

Is there a plan for evacuation? For rapid recovery and safeguarding of critical legal documents, medicines, and assets? For assembly at a distant point, or for return and recovery? Recurring events, no matter how monumental, should not be a surprise.

--Don Donahue, Director, Firestorm Healthcare Response Team

HEADLINE: The pandemic that wasn’t

SUMMARY: A commentary by Henry I. Miller appearing in Forbes calls into question the WHO’s response to the H1N1 influenza pandemic. “From the beginning the World Health Organization's actions have ranged from the dubious to the flagrantly incompetent,’’ writes Miller, who surmises that getting governmental buy-in to fight a potentially more virulent future pandemic may now be more difficult.

STORY LINK: http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/10/swine-flu-world-health-organization-pandemic-opinions-contributors-henry-i-miller.html?boxes=Homepagechannels

ANALYSIS: The abject criticism of the WHO’s handling of the H1N1 outbreak benefits from the clarity of hindsight. The WHO does have its issues and, like any organization, more than its share of missteps. Arguably, defining pandemic by geographic spread without consideration of virulence is among them. Public health policy is defined, however, by evidence and precedent. The looming archetype of pandemic influenza is the 1918-19 outbreak, which killed 3 to 6 percent of the world population, some 50 million to 100 million people. While this example may be distant and of marginal relevance, it remains a benchmark nonetheless.

As the novel H1N1 rapidly spread in April-June 2009, it was impossible to predict how deadly this strain would be. In fact, early indicators appeared to point to a relatively lethal strain, perhaps because only the worst cases were readily identified and reported.

As it turned out, H1N1 did displace seasonal flu and reduced the toll from the annual cycle. This was impossible to know on June 11, 2009, when the pandemic was declared. The more pertinent question is not whether the WHO overreacted, but what would have been the consequences had the circumstances been reversed – taking a conservative approach and the virus exhibits exceptional virulence? Given that scenario, rightful criticism would be heaped upon the WHO for failing to protect the world’s health.

Finally, to blame irrational behavior on warnings issued by a public health organization is itself irrational. The slaughter of pigs in Egypt may have been based on many things, but it was not founded in either science or the content of WHO warnings. Charlatans abound, ready to pounce on any fear or unknown. The “fraudulent peddling of all sorts of ineffective and possibly dangerous protective gear and nostrums” was readily preventable, had the details of WHO guidance been heeded. This situation points to the classic communications model: there must be a speaker and a listener. Absent either, there is no communication.

A clear and consistent message is the order of the day when facing a potential catastrophe. Erring on the side of caution may prove unnecessary, but it is a superior approach to missing the call on an historic natural disaster as it unfolds.

--Don Donahue, Director, Firestorm Healthcare Response Team

Campus safety

HEADLINE: Hostage suspect had beef with principal

SUMMARY: A secretary at a Calgary junior high school was held hostage at knifepoint for two hours until police negotiated her release. Police say a 25-year-old with a longstanding grudge against the school’s principal -- and a lengthy criminal record -- will face 10 charges in the incident, including stalking. The principal’s brother said the suspect wanted compensation for sports injuries suffered while attending the school. "(The principal) knew it was coming for a number of years," he said. "I guess he feels some relief (the suspect was arrested) but he'll be out again -- he's a problem that won't go away."

STORY LINK: http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2010/03/06/13135056-qmi.html

ANALYSIS: Everyone saw it coming, but what plan was in place? This is a textbook case of imminent danger involving a disturbed person and was entirely preventable.

The events in this incident are disturbing because a totally preventable violent encounter turned into a hostage situation. This easily could have turned in favor of the more likely intent of attacking the principal. There are simple, tried and true methods to deal with stalker personalities. If they are not sternly engaged initially and rejected completely, they will continue to pursue and harass their targeted obsession.

The Calgary detective in this case said, “… It's fortunate police were in the area and on scene in minutes, quickly starting negotiations with the suspect. … It could have gone wrong at any time between those two hours. … It's lucky for everybody."

I could not agree more with his statement, that they were lucky this time. The school district and police failed to live up to their obligations and got lucky this time. What about next time? All across the United States, governments of all sizes are facing catastrophic, financial emergencies. Everyone’s safety will be affected by the downsizing of our first-responder groups. The police, fire, EMS, and OEM departments are being asked to do more, with much less.

Suppose this was a kidnapping, a planned murder, a terrorist attack or a natural disaster that we knew was coming, and we did nothing about it, but used luck as our strategy. Would we tell the students, the parents and the principal’s wife, “well, we didn’t get lucky this time?”

As Firestorm has long asserted, Luck is Not a Strategic Plan.

--Scott Watkowski, Firestorm franchise principal

HEADLINE: Loaded handgun found in backpack of student, 8, who threatened classmate

SUMMARY: Authorities in Baltimore say a third-grader at a special-needs school brought in a loaded handgun and was overheard threatening another student. A staff member followed the boy to his locker, where a search of his backpack revealed the gun. The boy was charged as a juvenile with handgun possession and school and city police were conducting an investigation to determine the gun's owner and where it came from originally.

STORY LINK: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-city/bal-md.ci.gun06mar06,0,5020126.story

ANALYSIS: As a professional security specialist, I find myself asking one set of questions. I also raise questions as a parent and a firearms instructor.

Where and how did he get the gun is first and foremost. Why wasn’t it properly secured? Who does it belong to? Do they legally own it?

We need to determine why the child felt the need to carry a gun to school. His school is adjacent to a homeless shelter and he takes a bus from one side of Baltimore to the other. You can only imagine what he sees on his daily commute. In the same time frame as this incident, a 16-boy committed murder as part of his rite of passage into the Bloods street gang.

Is this incident gang related? Did the boy feel the need for protection? Was it as simple as trying to emulate a questionable role model? Or is he the youngest terrorist caught in action?

The real victim here is the 8-year-old himself. Whatever the causes and influences on his decision to bring a gun to school, it is going to be a badge of honor for one group, and a moment of darkness for another.

--Scott Watkowski, Firestorm franchise principal

Cyber security

HEADLINE: Energizer Bunny's software infects PCs

SUMMARY: According to researchers at US-CERT (United States Computer Emergency Readiness Team), software that accompanies the Energizer DUO USB battery charger contains a Trojan horse that gives hackers total access to a Windows PC. The Energizer DUO, a USB-powered nickel-metal hydride battery recharger, has been discontinued, said Energizer Holdings, which late Friday confirmed that the software contains malicious code, but did not say how the Trojan made its way into the software.

STORY LINK: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9166978/Energizer_Bunny_s_software_infects_PCs?taxonomyId=125