13-Feb-09 9:00 AM EST

Firestorm Newsletter 13-Feb-09

February 13, 2009

Disaster Due Diligence February 13, 2009

Business continuity

HEADLINE: Crisis prevention: How to do it, how to make it work

SUMMARY: Prevention and attention to early warning signs are critical components of crisis management that are often overlooked. One key recommendation is to listen and respond to employees, clients and customers when they point out potential vulnerabilities. Conducting regular test exercises is also critical to avoiding a crisis.

STORY LINK: http://www.continuitycentral.com/feature0644.html

ANALYSIS: The failure to identify and monitor all vulnerabilities is one of the five common failures in a disaster. After reviewing hundreds of business continuity plans, most fail to identify all vulnerabities, do not establish a monitoring plan, identify triggers for action, and assign monitoring responsibility.

Clear authority and responsibility for monitoring is critical. Vulnerabilities can and do change; annual review, updates to plans, and testing is required.

-- Jim Satterfield, Firestorm President/COO

Communicable illness

HEADLINE: China suspected of covering up bird flu outbreak

SUMMARY: The World Health Organization declined to comment on the possibility of a cover-up by the Chinese government regarding a recent outbreak of avian flu. Eight recent human cases, five fatal, were recorded in January. The physical distribution of the cases is making many wonder if contaminated poultry has entered the food chain.

STORY LINK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/4510840/China-suspected-of-covering-up-bird-flu-outbreak.html

ANALYSIS: It is no surprise to see the outbreak now surface in Vietnam. It will be interesting to see if Thailand can keep the flu out of its large chicken complexes. Also, watch for cases in Northern Thailand along the Laos border. There is some smuggling of drugs on the Thai-Chinese border (the Golden Triangle) but the chickens likely would be brought through Laos.

This poultry outbreak must be a big one and moving fast. As for the human cases, I see no change in the attack rate to humans. With a massive outbreak like this and with the cases scattered, it seems the eight cases are appropriate to the outbreak.

-- Dr. Steve Cunnion, Firestorm Expert Council member

Workplace violence

HEADLINE: Severe Mental Illness Alone Does Not Predict Violent Crime

SUMMARY: When violent crimes occur, the public usually assumes the perpetrator must have been suffering from major mental illness. This apparently is not the case, according to recent data from the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. The conclusions included that persons with schizophrenia, bi-polar disorder, or major depression were no more likely to commit violent crimes than anyone else. Future violence was more likely among these individuals only if they were also substance dependent or abusing. It is suggested that these data could be used as a red flag to determine who should undergo more formal risk assessment.

STORY LINK: http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/587839

ANALYSIS: These findings, along with others, present some light in an otherwise muddy situation. The research into the correlates of criminality and violent crime are sometimes contradictory. Whether it is because of definitions, methodology or research design remains unclear.

For instance, the idea that males are more likely than females to be criminal or violent becomes less clear in the population of those with severe mental illness (among whom women are more likely to commit violent or criminal acts).

The effect of race is also a confounding variable. Statistically, African-American males are more likely to commit violent or criminal acts than Caucasian males, but when the degree of disadvantaged neighborhood is controlled, the disparity between the races is eliminated. Further research indicates that when subjects are controlled as to whether they have personally been the victim of violent crime, the numbers also equalize.

Besides the idea of using the above criteria as a “red flag,” two other take-home points are worth noting: Prior violence and criminality are the best predictors of future violence and criminality; and physical abuse occurring after the age of 16 when combined with a major mental disorder increases the risk for future violence four-fold.

It is obvious that the situation is not as clear-cut as people would like; especially those likely to be held responsible for criminal or violent behavior by those under their charge. Moreover, some of the information needed to have predictive value would be quite difficult to obtain in any reasonable and legal fashion. However, the guidelines inferred from the information presented above allow a broad stroke that may facilitate servicing those potential offenders in a prophylactic way.

-- Dr. Ralph Diner, Firestorm Expert Council member

Crisis communications

HEADLINE: Peanut-borne salmonella is subject of outrage in Congress

SUMMARY: A congressional subcommittee this week lambasted officials of the Peanut Corp., whose Blakely, Ga., plant has been identified by the FDA as the source of the recent peanut butter salmonella outbreak that has killed nine people and sickened 600 more nationwide. The company officials refused to answer the subcommittee's questions, repeatedly invoking Fifth Amendment rights.

STORY LINK: http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-na-peanut-salmonella12-2009feb12,0,622162.story

ANALYSIS: This news story about problems in the food processing industry, as well as others involving banking and construction, have once again demonstrated how the lack of a solid media plan can put a company’s fortunes, and possibly its future, into question.

Does your company have a plan of what to do when CNN comes knocking at your door? Who will speak? What will they say? Or, as has happened recently, will you run and hide, thereby making things worse?

Companies of any size can become targets of a 24/7 media blitz at any time. Those blitzes usually occur when a company already is in crisis mode as a result of an accident, a bad business decision, or some other incident that may be totally out of its control. Most company officials are neither willing nor prepared to deal with the media in times like that.

Yet it is exactly at those times that officials can mitigate damage to the company’s reputation and its financial bottom line by engaging the media instead of avoiding them. Running away and hiding from the media makes it appear to the public that officials of that company have something to hide. Even if there is no guilt, avoidance of the media gives the perception of guilt and that can linger much longer.

A head-on approach by the top official of any company is the best way to deal with the media in any crisis situation. Getting out in front of the story and implanting in the public’s mind your side of the story helps lessen the blow. In times of crisis, the public and the media don’t want to see a spokesman or the second in command; they want to see the boss standing in front of the cameras.

But if that boss has not had media training and does not know how to disseminate the information he wants the public to receive, the media, not the company, will set the agenda and leave that lasting, often negative, impression. In the age of Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, the Internet, and the 24/7 news cycle, a company without media training and a solid media plan will only make a bad situation worse.

-- Ron Martz, Firestorm Expert Council member

Natural disasters

HEADLINE: U.N. report gives 2008 disasters summary

SUMMARY: Natural disaster figures for 2008 indicate an increase in the death toll and costs from the previous year. In 2008, disasters killed 235,816 people, affected 211 million others and cost a total of $181 billion. The total number of natural disasters was 321, and Asia was the most affected continent.

STORY LINK: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=29636&Cr=disaster&Cr1